Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.051801 0.059052 0.067181 0.077010 0.088632 0.102003 0.118651
2025-11-30 0.041418 0.050475 0.061493 0.076031 0.094933 0.118989 0.152427
2025-12-07 0.033978 0.043825 0.056676 0.074998 0.100980 0.137346 0.193650
2025-12-14 0.027628 0.037418 0.051006 0.071763 0.103643 0.152469 0.236506
2025-12-21 0.021813 0.030756 0.043818 0.064983 0.099830 0.157686 0.267539
2025-12-28 0.018728 0.027508 0.041024 0.064317 0.105636 0.180616 0.339859
2026-01-04 0.016547 0.025271 0.039399 0.065272 0.114753 0.213226 0.449245
2026-01-11 0.014565 0.023035 0.037391 0.065197 0.122279 0.246524 0.582990
2026-01-18 0.012905 0.021072 0.035515 0.065003 0.129816 0.283980 0.757540
2026-01-25 0.011294 0.018952 0.032997 0.063024 0.133168 0.314157 0.941184
2026-02-01 0.009811 0.016850 0.030166 0.059798 0.132847 0.335739 1.122825
2026-02-08 0.008901 0.015681 0.028958 0.059862 0.140887 0.386258 1.479315
2026-02-15 0.008068 0.014568 0.027730 0.059755 0.149084 0.444885 1.975449
2026-02-22 0.007445 0.013781 0.027057 0.060871 0.161563 0.528972 2.785139
2026-03-01 0.006871 0.013013 0.026297 0.061627 0.173657 0.623736 3.931407
2026-03-08 0.006233 0.012025 0.024883 0.060321 0.178796 0.696120 5.176520
2026-03-15 0.005481 0.010703 0.022491 0.055752 0.170939 0.703271 5.885601
2026-03-22 0.005094 0.010133 0.021808 0.055980 0.181122 0.815225 8.350018
2026-03-29 0.004812 0.009761 0.021552 0.057454 0.197262 0.983597 12.885296
2026-04-05 0.004510 0.009308 0.021017 0.057947 0.209964 1.152377 19.342688
2026-04-12 0.004231 0.008871 0.020459 0.058243 0.222330 1.342942 29.420389
2026-04-19 0.003914 0.008309 0.019482 0.056881 0.226408 1.480094 41.049723
2026-04-26 0.003585 0.007684 0.018245 0.054321 0.223418 1.556064 52.749074